Pure speculation discussion

[Captain Sensible]

Okay, so as we've discovered many of us feel freed of GW's fickle affections now that warhammer has gone bye bye.

Many of us have a crapton of replacement toy soldiers thingies already.

Now let's take a purely speculative look at GW on this subject.

Do you think GW is glad to be rid of that money pit that is fantasy?

Do you think they got tired of being endlessly derided on the internet by the very people who were paying them in the first place?

How about the shareholders whose greed ultimately gutted the company in typical western tradition strip mining fashion? Where do they go now? Buy shares in Mantic and devour them from the inside out and maybe privateer press?

How about age of sigmar, cos lets be honest here, if this lot's current sales are anything to go by, come december its gonna go warhammer fantasy battles too.

Then there's the staff, the designers, the painters and all the a$$holes who actually did the work to try and make the twisted dreams of kirby and co a reality. Is there a place for them in the industry following this ignoble ending?

Is it really ending, or merely a tactical withdrawal while they try to figure out a more realistic plan.

So, lemme hear your musings on GW's side of the collapse of the warhammer fantasy world.

[Doc Rot]

I honestly think they thought this was a good idea, and still see it as a good idea. I mean Space Marines sell in 40k. Why wouldn't Space Marines with Bows instead of Bolters and Hammers instead of Chainswords NOT work.

There must be someone buying it

[und_ed]

[nicktee]

The dividend posted seems to be an attempt to wrest some value back into their shares which are currently trading at: 510 July 2015 versus a high of 765 – Aug 2013. Or perhaps it's an attempt to extract as much value from a floundering ship. Or perhaps this is what the board believes true shareholder value to be - In any case unless we're privy to the boardroom discussion it's hard to do more than speculate on the basis of their decisions. Time will however either validate or condemn them - I think it's clear which camp I'm in.

I'm of the impression that they are either receiving a very narrow spectrum of feedback - possibly what they wish to hear and are taking this as the market reality or perhaps they are simply receiving too much feedback and are unable to extract any meaningful information from it. ... Or perhaps they're knee jerking to real and perceived threats due to the entry of multiple competitors. Either way I think that GW is in for a torrid time for the following reasons:
The world is still in recession - perhaps this based on sentimentality rather than hard facts but over the last few weeks both Sky and CNN have polled people on the street (and whilst unscientific) the general response reflects their news casts in that Joe and Joanne Average are holding back on non essentials. I remember when I first purchused my first army joking about how much more a set of golf clubs would cost but quite frankly I think the current price is rapidly overtaking them.
Secondly the number of alternatives to GW games abound so there is a ready home for those wishing to break-away as well as creating competition for new entrants moolah.
Thirdly we have witnessed the rise of house-rules internationally so that GW's latest rule rendition is no longer the chapter and verse for the gaming public. Also the GW withdrawl from the mega tournaments has bereft small/localised tournament organisers of the aspirational attempts to emulate them and has therefore further fragmented the player group.
I don't necessarily think that games like KoW is going to overtake Warhammer. In fact I suspect that they will be an early casualty because there is little to chose from in price and they have none of the amazing background that GW have managed to engender to their product.
I also think that the move away from GW and the highlighting of Warhammer is an attempt by the perception spinners like myself to solidify the markets association with the good whilst allowing the (bad) GW name and the vitriol that it has and continues to attract - to decline from T-o-M awareness.

I remember Johnny saying that they (GW) are unlikely to change their ways until the market punishes them and it seems that the market has coalesced into GW's worst scenario of: Poor economic conditions; Multiple (exciting) competitors; Significant company reputational loss; A global active anti GW force. All of the above (and I'm sure there are other issues are driving an active search for alternatives. Where it will lead to is hard to fully predict but I suspect that the market has become fragmented and the days of GW's singular dominance is at an end but I doubt whether it will mean the end of GW

[Dark Angel]

GeeDub have 40k that makes up the majority of their revenue and that is not affected by this at all so by means is this any sort of end.

For me Fantasy was just not doing it for them and they went another direction. Nothing that happens in the next few months will change what they are going to do because they (for me anyway) are clearly trying to capture a different market and what we think or feel as current fantasy players does not feature in their plans. You cannot go a completely different direction like this and bow to negative feedback so early, especially since the new models and armies are not out as yet. things like the online books are bound to do badly, the question is, will the 14 year olds that buy 40k (and never do anything with it) and keep the company afloat buy this stuff once it is in store? That is the true test of AoS for me.

[Captain Sensible]

Dark Angle brought up a great point about the age of sigmar stuff. Their usual sold out in a single weekend for the limited run books did not happen with sigmar books.

I do think that while we might not always know the full details on here, that particular fact is very very telling in its own right.

Bear in mind that while the end times was slated horrifically on this forum, that didn't stop their hardcover limited edition books being sold out within 2 days.

That it didn't happen on a new product that wasn't actually hated like end times was by the second book, and I think you have something solid to consider.

[nicktee]

[Captain Sensible]

Interesting comments there Nicky Tee'd off.

It wouldn't be the first time the head of a company, without any interest in the product, slagged off on their customer base. TSR did that, deriding the mindset of their fans. I remember that within two years TSR collapsed and was vastly improved upon by wizards of the coast. I'm so glad that happened.

[Dark Angel]

[joppie]

I feel that because of 40k's vastly superior number of sales, GW decided to scrap fantasy, free up shelf space and sell more 40k.

AOsigh is an attempt to get 40k players to buy their fantasy as well, since the models can be used for 40k as well.

GW isn't in any trouble, since 40k is their flagship, and even if losing all but three fantasy purchasers, they increase in 40k sales will make more than make up for it if they just focus on 40k.

Will probably see new armies come out, codex redo more often, more super units, 40k boat will float a long time still, and fantasy was merely an anchor holding it back

[Captain Sensible]

Dark Dangle, I haven't bought anything beyond the odd 6th ed character model from GW new for at least 4 years now.

The reason is simple. I cannot buy GW products. They're far too goddamned expensive.

besides, I get better second hand deals on here. What the hell do I need GW for?

[nicktee]

I haven't bought any new models for 3 years but I have at least R6,000 - R7,000 still in boxes so I'm part of the problem but I still think that it's the players that drive home their sales NOT the occasional modelers. The tournaments, the gaming, the whole shebang is what drives their sales and the 14yr old purchase is tied into this hype. Do away with the the hype and watch what happens to even the occasional purchaser.

Mercedes Benz F1 has very little in common with their road going counterparts but thanks to their F1 involvement Mercedes have managed to reverse a very serious perceptual space where they were considered uncool and for the old crowd only. Once their F1 association started changing that perception they were able to launch avant garde cars which appealed to a market segment that was previously almost wholly owned by BMW and Audi. Similarly if GW's product perception becomes little more than a futuristic looking model to glue and paint and stick up on the shelf above little Johnny's bed then all it is, is some very expensive plastic and maybe that Revel or Airfix Tiger Tank is a better buy...

But times is tough - I just heard that Underground is closing down so our small market seems unable to sustain itself...

[Captain Sensible]

Okay, okay, I know I'm gonna be hated for this. But hey, it's not like I'm running for office or anything, so I'm free from peer pressure. I've gotta ask the question:

Why the hell did we all keep on buying so much of this crap for so long?

[Azimyth]

[Captain Sensible]

When 8th ed high elves came out I moaned and groaned about shelling out the 700 bucks for the skinnny little army book. I like it. But its definitely not worth 700 bucks. Not even remotely.

But here's the kicker. The only model I bought was the dragonmage. The rest was so overpriced that despite how much I like the models I just couldn't bring myself to fork out 800 bucks for 4 wound budgie chariot, nevermind the fact I would have liked 3 of them. And those phoenix jobbies... out of the question.

Now I'm really glad I didn't because kings of war doesn't have them anyway. Cool!!!